DAKAR, Senegal: When Senegalese farmer Abou Sow watched U.S. missiles strike Iran, his concern was not geopolitics, it was survival. Within weeks of the conflict that began on February 28, fertilizer prices surged by 40%, sending shockwaves through farming communities across West Africa and beyond.
This is the often-overlooked cost of global conflict. While attention remains fixed on military escalation, the real consequences are unfolding quietly in agricultural fields, where rising input costs threaten food security for millions.
The disruption is rooted in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global energy flows. Iran’s influence over the passage has constrained natural gas supplies, a key ingredient in the production of chemical fertilizers. The ripple effect has been immediate and severe, driving global fertilizer prices up by as much as 50%. For Abou Sow, this crisis reinforces a decision he made years ago. Nearly a decade earlier, he abandoned chemical fertilizers in favor of organic compost and natural alternatives. Today, he trains farmers across Senegal to source manure locally and produce nutrient-rich compost, promoting a system that is less dependent on volatile global markets. His message is increasingly urgent: waiting for geopolitical stability is no longer viable. Farmers must adapt or risk collapse.
Yet the transition is not without challenges. In remote areas, sourcing and transporting organic inputs like manure remains difficult and costly. Without infrastructure and support, some farmers may be forced to abandon their land altogether.
The Senegalese government has attempted to respond, announcing subsidies and the distribution of 30,000 tons of organic fertilizer. However, many argue that this effort is insufficient, particularly in a global system where agricultural subsidies estimated at $700 billion annually continue to favor chemical fertilizers over sustainable alternatives.
Ironically, the crisis may present an environmental opportunity. Chemical fertilizers are heavily reliant on fossil fuels and contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. Organic alternatives, by contrast, improve soil health, reduce water pollution, and help capture carbon in the soil.
Experts believe that this moment could accelerate a long-overdue transition toward climate-friendly agriculture, if governments choose to support it.
In Brazil, the shift is already underway. Despite being one of the world’s largest agricultural exporters, the country depends on imports for over 80% of its fertilizer. The current crisis has pushed prices sharply higher, forcing farmers to explore alternatives.
Biofertilizers, which use microorganisms to enhance nutrient absorption, are gaining traction. The sector has grown rapidly, expanding by 15% between 2023 and 2024. Unlike chemical fertilizers, these solutions can often be produced locally, reducing exposure to global supply disruptions.
Brazil’s climate also plays a role. High rainfall and temperatures reduce the effectiveness of chemical fertilizers, making organic and biological options more practical and sustainable.
Elsewhere, progress has been slower. In countries like Mexico, government policies continue to favor chemical fertilizers through subsidies, limiting the adoption of alternatives. This policy imbalance highlights a broader global issue: the persistence of outdated agricultural models in a rapidly changing world.
The current crisis raises a fundamental question about the future of food production. Are governments preparing farmers for resilience, or reinforcing dependency on fragile global supply chains?
From Senegal’s compost-driven farms to Brazil’s expanding biofertilizer industry, a new agricultural reality is taking shape. It is one defined not by choice, but by necessity.
Global conflict has once again exposed systemic vulnerabilities. But it has also created an opening to rethink how food is produced, distributed, and sustained.
For farmers like Abou Sow, the conclusion is clear. Food security cannot depend on distant wars or unstable supply routes. It must be built on local resilience, sustainable practices, and immediate action.
-Mogomotsi Lewis Magome
READ THE FULL E-MAGAZINE | WorldAffairs: For Decision-Makers Who Need More Than Headlines
