NEW DELHI, India: India is a strong economic outlier, with real GDP growth expected to be between 6.4% and 6.7% in FY2025–26, despite global instability and changing geopolitical alliances. Rajiv Memani, Chairman of EY India and new President of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), says that strong domestic demand, digital infrastructure, and macroeconomic changes are driving this momentum.
Memani said during his maiden press conference as CII President, “India stands out as a bright spot in an increasingly fractured global economy at a time when global economic and political instability is at its highest in over two decades.”
The Reserve Bank of India’s 6.5% prediction for FY26 is in line with CII’s prognosis, which is backed by an easy monetary policy. The RBI lowered the Cash Reserve Ratio by 100 basis points in June, adding ₹2.5 lakh crore in liquidity, and lowered benchmark rates by 50 basis points to 5.5%.
India’s internal growth is still robust enough to handle shocks from outside, even though commerce is slow, there are tensions in the Middle East, and the supply chain is broken.
“According to CII, real GDP growth will stay between 6.4 and 6.7 percent. “This makes India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy even stronger,” Memani said.
As industrialized economies stall and emerging countries deal with debt difficulties, India’s steady growth has gotten a lot of attention throughout the world. India is considered as a strategic buffer in the face of global “de-risking” and supply chain diversification since it has a population of 1.4 billion, a growing middle class, and a digital transformation. The IMF says that India will be the second biggest contributor to global growth in 2025, after China. India’s model is different from China’s since it is based on the country’s own economy and uses technology.
Memani said, “In a world where the rules of trade and technology are changing quickly, India needs to base its growth on productivity, scale, and innovation.” “The chances are real, but the time is short. This is our time.
India’s digital public infrastructure, such as UPI and Aadhaar, makes it possible for a lot more people to use it, which has caught the attention of multilateral banks, fintechs, and digital trade coalitions.
Global organizations and commercial blocs keep a careful eye on India’s economic power. India pushed for the interests of the Global South while it was president of the G20. It focused on debt reduction, climate funding, and digital fairness. India is using its power as a member of BRICS+, the Quad, and IPEF to change the rules for trade around the world.
“Being competitive is India’s ticket to wealth.” Memani remarked, “But it must be earned through reform, innovation, and trust,” which shows CII’s dedication to working with people around the world. Key changes like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) programs, semiconductor policy, and the India Semiconductor Mission are making India a “China+1” option for businesses throughout the world.
Memani laid forward a plan for reform that would change the GST from a single rate to three: 5% on necessities, 28% on luxury and sinful products, and 12–18% on everything else. “Many things that people with lower incomes buy are still taxed at high rates.” He remarked, “Making the GST more reasonable, especially on building materials like cement, will get the economy going.”
CII also wants: * The sale of about ₹5 lakh crore worth of public sector equities to pay for capital expenditures, a sovereign wealth fund, and debt reduction. * The creation of a National AI Authority to handle policy, infrastructure, and training.
* Making hubs for green hydrogen and renewable energy.
* Start of a Capital Support Scheme for small and medium-sized businesses that focuses on research and development, hiring, and using new technology. Setting up a Task Force on Affordable Land to help manufacturing grow.
* A nationwide Skilling-as-Infrastructure approach to bring together talent and money.
Memani said, “We have to put India at the front of the world’s technological change.” “This includes being a leader in AI, green energy, and high-end manufacturing.”
With stock markets at all-time highs and robust foreign direct investment (FDI), India is a good place for investors to put their money in the face of global fragmentation. There are still problems to solve, like judicial reforms, regulatory friction, and logistics costs. However, the policy direction is in line with what global investors want, which is to make it easier to do business, improve infrastructure, and make changes to the labor market.
India’s demographic dividend, stable institutions, and push for reform make it a unique market and partner in global governance in the Global South.
Memani ended with a warning about the Middle East: “Even though India’s internal momentum is strong, we must stay alert.” Rising tensions in the Middle East and other hot spots across the world could make it harder for trade and supply systems to work. We need to keep making significant changes to stay ahead. “This isn’t just about growth; it’s about India’s place in the world.”
– Dr. Shahid Siddiqui; You may follow him on X @shahidsiddiqui
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