SAO PAULO: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva continues to hold a slim advantage over opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the race for Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new Datafolha poll released on Friday.
The survey shows Lula leading a potential second-round runoff with 48% support, compared with 43% for Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The numbers remain largely unchanged from a June poll, which also gave Lula a 47% to 43% edge. In the first-round voting scenario, Lula commands 40% of voter support, while Flavio Bolsonaro follows with 32%. The remaining vote is fragmented among other contenders, with Ronaldo Caiado polling at 4%, and Romeu Zema and Renan Santos each receiving 3%.
Under Brazil’s electoral system, a presidential candidate must secure more than 50% of valid votes to win outright in the first round. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two candidates advance to a runoff election.
The latest poll comes amid political turbulence within the Bolsonaro camp. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaropublicly accused Flavio Bolsonaro in June of showing her “disrespect” after he criticized her involvement in party affairs. The senator has since issued a public apology in an apparent attempt to ease tensions within the conservative movement.
The survey was also conducted in the aftermath of the United States’ decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing what Washington described as unfair trade practices. Lula’s government has strongly rejected the allegations, turning the trade dispute into another key issue in the election campaign.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters between July 22 and 23. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
-Simon Jessop
