WASHINGTON: U.S. President Donald Trump is proceeding cautiously amid widespread protests in Iran, even as some U.S. assessments suggest the unrest may not yet be strong enough to seriously threaten Tehran’s ruling clerical leadership.
While Trump has warned Iran’s leaders that any violent crackdown on protesters would trigger severe consequences, he has otherwise taken a wait-and-watch approach.
“You better not start shooting because we’ll start shooting too,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday.
Human rights organizations have accused Iranian security forces of killing and injuring protesters. However, in an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Trump referenced protesters being “stomped on” in large crowds and security forces “shooting the hell out of people” in previous crackdowns.
The current unrest is the latest in a series of major demonstrations against Iran’s leadership, with Washington once again voicing support for the protesters. Trump also said he was not yet ready to meet Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince and son of Iran’s last Shah signaling that he intends to observe how events unfold before endorsing any opposition figure.
“I think we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. “I’m not sure that would necessarily be the appropriate thing to do right now.”
Pahlavi has urged Trump to deepen U.S. involvement, calling for “attention, support and action” in a recent social media appeal.
U.S. Intelligence: Regime Still Stable, But Situation Evolving
A recent U.S. intelligence assessment indicated that the protests have not yet reached a scale capable of directly threatening Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rule, according to a source familiar with the report. However, analysts are monitoring developments closely as demonstrations spread into symbolic strongholds, including Khamenei’s hometown of Mashhad.
A White House spokesperson echoed Trump’s position, saying the administration would respond forcefully if Iran violently targets peaceful demonstrators.
The CIA declined to comment.
The unrest comes as Trump remains engaged with multiple foreign policy fronts, including Venezuela, while also reviving his controversial push over Greenland.
Trump previously ordered U.S.-led airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last June and has warned he is prepared to act again if Tehran attempts to restore its nuclear program.
“I just hope the protesters in Iran are going to be safe, because that’s a very dangerous place right now,” Trump said.
Alex Vatanka, Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said Trump appears to be waiting to see whether the protests meaningfully destabilize Iran’s leadership before following through on threats of intervention.
Trump “wants to be on the winning side, but he prefers a quick win, not one that requires long-term commitment, especially in the Middle East,” Vatanka said.
-Jonathan Erickson
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