ABUJA: Nigeria faces a convergence of insecurity, economic hardship and declining public confidence that demands more than political assurances. Across several states, armed groups continue to threaten communities through killings, abductions and displacement. At the same time, soaring petrol prices are increasing transportation costs, weakening household purchasing power and placing additional pressure on businesses. With the 2027 elections approaching, the country confronts a fundamental question: can political leaders demonstrate that protecting citizens and restoring economic stability remain more important than securing their next mandate?
The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) has raised precisely this concern. In a statement reported on 8 October, the northern socio-political organisation criticised what it described as the government’s inadequate response to worsening insecurity and warned that political office holders appeared increasingly preoccupied with the 2027 elections. It cited attacks and abductions across Zamfara, Benue, Katsina, Kogi, Niger, Plateau and Taraba states, alongside other security incidents. In Zamfara, the forum reported five separate attacks in a single day during the period under review. These accounts underline the persistent insecurity confronting communities, although individual incidents require independent verification. <escape> </escape>
The ACF’s intervention is significant not merely because of the severity of its accusations, but because it identifies a dangerous distortion of political priorities. Elections are essential to democratic government, yet their legitimacy depends on the state’s ability to protect the population between electoral cycles. When citizens are killed, families are abducted, schools are disrupted and livelihoods destroyed, campaign calculations become increasingly detached from the realities of everyday life.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration cannot be judged exclusively by policy announcements, security operations or economic indicators. Its performance must also be measured by whether ordinary Nigerians can travel safely, operate businesses, educate their children and obtain basic necessities without living under constant threat.
The security challenge is neither geographically confined nor attributable to a single armed organisation. Banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and communal violence operate through different networks and require distinct responses. Treating them as one undifferentiated problem risks producing broad announcements instead of effective, intelligence-led interventions.
The federal government must strengthen coordination among security agencies, improve intelligence gathering, disrupt the financing and logistics of armed groups, and ensure that personnel are deployed according to clearly assessed threats. State governments and local authorities must also be incorporated into coordinated prevention and response mechanisms. Military operations remain necessary in appropriate circumstances, but durable security requires functioning local institutions, accountable policing, accessible justice and credible protection for vulnerable communities.
The government must also confront the economic consequences of insecurity. Attacks on rural communities restrict farming, displace residents and interrupt the movement of agricultural goods. When farmers cannot cultivate or harvest safely, food supplies become less reliable and prices face additional upward pressure. Transporters may avoid dangerous routes, traders reduce activity, and displaced families lose income while requiring humanitarian assistance. Violence therefore extends far beyond its immediate victims: it weakens the economic foundations upon which national recovery depends.
Fuel prices illustrate the scale of the wider challenge. In September 2026, petrol prices in major Nigerian cities rose to approximately 1,400–1,450 naira per litre amid higher international oil prices and tensions in the Middle East. Reporting at the time showed that the increase had revived cost-of-living pressures despite the expansion of domestic refining capacity.
Nigeria’s experience exposes a central contradiction. As Africa’s largest oil producer, the country possesses substantial petroleum resources, yet its citizens remain vulnerable to international energy-market disruptions. The Dangote refinery offers important industrial potential, but domestic refining cannot insulate consumers completely from crude-oil costs, foreign-exchange movements, distribution expenses and global market conditions. Reuters reported on 13 October that the refinery had recorded a substantial financial turnaround during the first nine months of 2026, illustrating the commercial opportunities emerging from changing energy markets. That success, however, should not be confused with proof that fuel has become affordable for ordinary Nigerians.
President Tinubu’s decision to remove petrol subsidies and reform foreign-exchange arrangements was intended to address fiscal distortions and improve economic management. Yet reforms cannot retain public legitimacy if households experience persistent hardship without credible protection. Fiscal discipline is necessary, but so are targeted assistance, reliable public transport, improved electricity supply and transparent market regulation.
The relationship between insecurity and economic hardship makes these priorities inseparable. Fuel inflation raises the cost of moving food and operating businesses; insecurity makes production and distribution more difficult. Together, they deepen vulnerability, particularly among low-income households and communities already affected by violence. A government that treats security as exclusively a military matter and inflation as exclusively an economic matter will struggle to address the reinforcing pressures confronting its population.
The approach to 2027 must therefore be defined by measurable public outcomes rather than the volume of political activity. Authorities should publish clear security priorities, communicate credible progress on preventing attacks and rescuing abducted citizens, and strengthen support for displaced communities. They should also explain how economic reforms will be accompanied by practical safeguards for vulnerable households.
Accountability is equally important. Investigations into attacks must lead, where evidence permits, to prosecutions. Public resources allocated to security must be subject to effective oversight, while communities should have accessible channels for reporting threats and receiving assistance. Without institutional credibility, even well-funded operations risk losing public cooperation.
Nigeria also needs a more ambitious economic-security strategy. Investment in rural roads, electricity, agricultural storage and regional transport networks can strengthen livelihoods while improving resilience. Diversifying energy sources, expanding dependable public transit and improving domestic supply chains can reduce exposure to external price shocks. These measures will not deliver immediate solutions to every crisis, but they can gradually reduce the vulnerabilities that repeatedly turn international disruption and local violence into nationwide economic distress.
Political competition will inevitably intensify as the 2027 elections approach. That is precisely why institutional discipline matters. Campaigns should not displace governance, and electoral ambition should not become an excuse for delayed action. Citizens have a right to judge political leaders by their records, including whether promises of security and economic renewal translate into tangible improvements.
Nigeria does not lack resources, industrial potential or capable citizens. Its deeper challenge is converting these advantages into reliable public outcomes. The ACF’s warning should be understood as a demand for accountability, not merely another intervention in political debate. A country cannot build lasting prosperity while communities remain exposed to armed violence and households struggle with the cost of basic necessities.
The test of leadership is not whether politicians can organise for the next election. It is whether they can protect citizens, restore confidence and create conditions in which families can live and work without fear. For Nigeria, security and economic stability are not campaign promises to be revisited at the ballot box. They are the minimum obligations of government, every day.
-David Dzirutwe
