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Middle Powers, Global Impact: India and the Philippines Forge a New Indo-Pacific Arc

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    Shahid Siddiqui Shahid Siddiqui
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    NEW DELHI: India and the Philippines have elevated their partnership to a strategic level, crafting a collaboration that is poised to shape stability and cooperation throughout the Indo-Pacific.

    President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s inaugural state visit to India in August 2025 marked a decisive step: both nations formally upgraded their relationship to a “Strategic Partnership,” symbolizing a major geopolitical shift just as Asia’s rivalries harden, especially in the contentious South China Sea. The diplomatic leap comes amid the 75th anniversary of India-Philippines bilateral ties, a reminder of the enduring, yet rapidly evolving, nature of their engagement.

    This step was more than ceremonial. Fourteen wide-ranging agreements, spanning defense, maritime security, technology, trade, disaster management, culture, and digital infrastructure, formed the bedrock of a comprehensive action plan for 2025–2029. This isn’t merely about inked documents or photo ops. It represents Asia’s drive to reinforce its security structures, counter unilateralism, reshape regional power balances, and promote an inclusive, middle-power-led Indo-Pacific order.

    The strategic upgrade unfolded during a moment of heightened tension. As President Marcos arrived in New Delhi, joint India-Philippines naval exercises were underway in the South China Sea, the epicentre of regional contestation. Early August 2025 saw three Indian warships, including INS Delhi, and two Philippine frigates operate together inside the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone. This was more than cooperation: it was a political signal of joint resolve.

    India’s assertive naval presence in these fraught waters transcends symbolic support. It marks Delhi’s shift from traditional non-alignment toward a policy of active balancing, deploying hard power beyond its typical sphere of influence. This new “forward presence,” rooted in the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and respectful of ASEAN centrality and UNCLOS norms, demonstrates India’s strategic clarity and willingness.

    China’s reaction followed its familiar script: shadowing naval groups, sending patrol aircraft, and sharply criticizing “external interference.” Yet, this response only highlighted Beijing’s unease as Manila strengthened its defense and diplomatic ties with Delhi, Tokyo, Canberra, and Washington—key signals of Manila’s resolve to chart a broader course.

    General Romeo Brawner, head of the Philippine Armed Forces, declared that Manila would further expand such cooperation, bilaterally and multilaterally—to safeguard its maritime sovereignty. His message reflected a new confidence: the Philippines is moving from restraint to action.

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    The 2022 BrahMos missile agreement, India’s first export of its supersonic missile had already primed the relationship for security cooperation. Now, the 2025 suite of deals widens the field: joint development and production of military platforms, cross-service training, coastal surveillance, submarine infrastructure, hydrography, and real-time maritime intelligence through the planned Philippine liaison officer at India’s Information Fusion Centre (IFC-IOR).

    India is emerging as the partner of choice for Southeast Asian nations seeking affordable, interoperable defense solutions without political strings. For Manila, this partnership means greater capability and strategic autonomy: an alternative to both Western and Chinese security dependency.

    While defense cooperation earned top billing, the economic relationship is emerging as the partnership’s second strong pillar. Although bilateral trade stands at $3.3 billion—well below potential, given both nations’ economic size and complementarities—leaders agreed to accelerate the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement review, initiate bilateral Preferential Trade Agreement talks, collaborate on sovereign cloud infrastructure for the Philippines, integrate India’s UPI system with Philippine digital payments, and expand work in areas like AI, renewables, satellite technology, and pharmaceuticals.

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    Of particular note is technology. India’s offer to help build a Philippine sovereign cloud meets Manila’s imperative to decrease reliance on Chinese digital infrastructure and assert national data sovereignty, a reflection of how the digital domain now shapes strategic depth as decisively as military might.

    In diplomacy, symbolism and sentiment remain powerful. Joint commemorative stamps for 75 years of friendship, expanded tourism initiatives, and investment in student and academic exchange all aim to generate enduring goodwill at the societal level. As Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo remarked, “This partnership is not just about security; it’s also about society and how our next generations see each other.” Strategic alignment, he suggests, must be rooted in popular engagement, not just elite consensus.

    The India-Philippines arc is not an isolated phenomenon. It’s part of an emerging recalibration among Asia’s middle powers states maneuvering between Chinese assertiveness and American unpredictability. Across the region, new webs of cooperation are forming: from the India-Vietnam comprehensive partnership to Philippines-Japan maritime drills.

    President Marcos Jr. was explicit: India is now the Philippines’ “fifth strategic partner,” joining the ranks of the US, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. This is not mere symbolism. It signals India’s steady ascent as a regional security provider and a force for balance, lending both credibility and capability in the Indo-Pacific.

    India’s Act East Policy, bolstered by Manila’s partnership, amplifies its presence in Southeast Asia and advances its claim as a “net security provider”—an ambition now manifesting in actions, not just aspirations.

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    China’s mounting anxiety is unmistakable. Its state media have painted India as a “proxy power,” and PLA naval activities have intensified near Philippine waters. Far from intimidating Manila, this overreach is achieving the opposite: pushing the Philippines closer not only to India but to a broader community of democratic, like-minded states.

    In fact, these dynamics are emblematic of how strategic overreach breeds backlash. China’s push for dominance in the South China Sea is spurring a regional counter-coalition with India at its heart.

    The India-Philippines Strategic Partnership extends far beyond bilateral engagement. It is the foundation of a new Indo-Pacific network—bridging subregions, sidestepping ideological rifts, and marking the rise of a more diversified, collaborative order. In this emerging landscape, economic progress is digital, security is cooperative, and sovereignty is reinforced through shared commitments, not confrontation.

    As the international order evolves, the Delhi-Manila axis demonstrates the potential of middle powers to build multilateral hedges and safeguard strategic autonomy together.

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     – Dr. Shahid Siddiqui; follow via X @shahidsiddiqui

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    Tags: #ActEastPolicy#AIandDefense#BrahMosExport#ChinaWatch#CounteringCoercion#DefenseDiplomacy#DigitalSovereignty#Geopolitics#IndiaInASEAN#IndiaPhilippines#IndoPacific#IndoPacificSecurity#IndoPacificTensions#ManilaDelhiAxis#MarcosModi#MaritimeSecurity#MiddlePowerAlliance#NetSecurityProvider#PhilippinesIndiaTies#SouthChinaSea#SouthChinaSeaStandoff#StrategicPartnership#UPIGoesGlobalAct East PolicyASEAN-India relationsBrahMos missile dealDigital sovereigntyGlobalIndiaIndia-Philippines Strategic PartnershipIndia’s forward presenceIndo-Pacific security architectureMaritime Domain AwarenessMiddle power diplomacyModiNet security provider IndiaNewsPhilippine-Indian defense tiesPhilippinesPhilippines foreign policyRegional counter-coalitionShahidshahid siddiquiSouth China Sea naval drillsUPI in Southeast AsiaWNN
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