NEW YORK/ LONDON: Oil prices climbed Thursday as traders evaluated the potential for Ukraine peace negotiations to succeed, with trading volume dampened by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Brent crude futures settled up 21 cents, or 0.2%, at $63.34 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 45 cents, or 0.8%, to $59.10 a barrel by 1:46 p.m. ET (1846 GMT).
The market is swinging between optimism and caution over renewed diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. “The market is swinging between hope and skepticism over renewed peace efforts in Ukraine,” said SEB commodities analyst Ole Hvalbye.
U.S. and Ukrainian delegations are scheduled to meet this week to formalize a peace framework previously discussed in Geneva talks, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The negotiations aim to establish security guarantees for Kyiv while resolving differences over President Donald Trump’s proposal to end Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two. Kyiv remains hesitant about accepting terms heavily favoring Russia, particularly regarding territorial concessions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that the draft peace plan outlines could form the basis for war-ending agreements. He stated that fighting would cease once Ukrainian troops withdraw from key areas, but warned Russia would pursue its objectives by force if negotiations fail.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Supports Prices
“Geopolitical volatility continues and hopes of a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have neutralized the supply concerns arising from new U.S. sanctions on key Russian producers,” Barclays analysts noted.
OPEC+ Expected to Maintain Output Levels
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies are likely to keep oil production unchanged at their Sunday meetings and establish a mechanism to evaluate members’ maximum output capacity, according to two OPEC+ delegates and sources familiar with the talks who spoke to WNN. Eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually increasing production throughout 2025, are expected to maintain their policy pausing output hikes through the first quarter of 2026, the delegates confirmed.
Fed Rate Cuts Bolster Market Sentiment
Crude prices gained additional support from rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Lower rates typically stimulate economic expansion and increase oil demand.
“We are now approaching the year-end with thinner liquidity without any new drivers unless the Fed surprises the markets with hawkish guidance on the 10 December FOMC meeting,” said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong. “WTI crude is likely to be range-bound between US$56.80 and US$60.40 till year-end.”
⁃ Emelia Sithole-Matarise
