YANGON, Myanmar: Myanmar’s first general election since the 2021 military coup concluded its initial phase on Sunday under the shadow of civil war, widespread displacement, and mounting doubts over credibility, with early indications pointing to weak voter turnout across much of the country.
The military government, which seized power after overturning the landslide victory of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), has presented the phased election as a step toward political stability. Critics at home and abroad, however, view the process as an attempt to cloak continued military rule in civilian form amid ongoing conflict and repression.
International skepticism has been pronounced. The United Nations, several Western governments, and global human rights organizations have rejected the polls as neither free nor fair, citing the exclusion of key opposition parties, sweeping restrictions on political expression, and laws criminalizing criticism of the election itself. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, remains imprisoned, while the NLD was dissolved after refusing to comply with new registration rules imposed by the junta.
Against this backdrop, the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is widely expected to dominate the outcome. Staffed largely by retired generals and fielding roughly one-fifth of all candidates, the USDP faces only limited competition. Analysts say the imbalance virtually guarantees its return to power.
“The election is structured to extend military dominance rather than restore democratic choice,” said Lalita Hanwong, a Myanmar specialist at Thailand’s Kasetsart University. “The USDP and allied parties are positioned to form the next government under military oversight.”
Campaigning ahead of the vote was muted, with little of the energy seen in previous elections. Residents across major cities reported sparse turnout on Sunday, far below participation levels recorded in the 2015 and 2020 polls, which saw turnout of about 70 percent. Further voting rounds are scheduled for January 11 and January 25, covering 265 of Myanmar’s 330 townships, though the military does not exercise full control over all of them.
Large parts of the country remain contested. Armed resistance groups formed after the coup, alongside long-established ethnic militias, continue to fight junta forces across wide swathes of territory. The conflict has displaced an estimated 3.6 million people, fueling one of Asia’s gravest humanitarian crises and severely limiting the reach and legitimacy of the electoral process.
In the fortified capital of Naypyitaw, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cast his ballot under heavy security, state media showed, holding up an ink-stained finger, a standard safeguard against multiple voting. Asked whether he intended to become president, a role analysts believe he covets, Min Aung Hlaing said he was not affiliated with any political party and noted that parliament would decide the presidency once convened.
The vote has drawn sharp rebukes from international officials. Tom Andrews, the U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, said the election offered no path out of the country’s deepening crisis and should be “firmly rejected.” Junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun acknowledged foreign criticism but insisted the polls would usher in stability and a “better future.”
On the ground, however, signs of public disengagement were evident. In Yangon and Mandalay, residents said polling stations were largely quiet, though some booths near military housing saw modest lines. In Hakha, the capital of conflict-hit Chin State, streets were largely deserted after local resistance groups urged a boycott.
“There’s no excitement, no sense of participation,” said a Mandalay resident who declined to be named for security reasons. “It’s nothing like 2020.”
Myanmar’s electoral framework does not require a minimum voter turnout, according to the Asian Network for Free Elections. As the phased process continues, analysts warn that any government formed through the vote is unlikely to gain broad domestic legitimacy or international recognition, reinforcing concerns that the election may deepen rather than resolve Myanmar’s prolonged political crisis.
-William Popper
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